CSI Energy Outlook 2020
“Stone Age ended, not because we ran out of stones”
December 1, 2020
The pandemic has shown that in order to create new or additional value, people no longer need to physically move and use the energy derived from hydrocarbons for this, and electricity and a strong Internet signal are enough, and this trend will only get stronger
Dear Readers, I am pleased to present to you our second annual review of the Kazakhstan oil market.
In our 2019 Annual Review, we noted that the market is in the longest bull market ever and this will undoubtedly have a negative impact on oil prices.
The International Monetary Fund in 2019 also noted the lowest economic growth since the global financial crisis and was not optimistic about the outlook for 2020. In 2019, the growth rate of world trade - a significant share of which is made up of final durable goods and components used in their production – dropped to zero.
Taking these factors into account, we believe that the pandemic is not the only factor in the global crisis, but it only intensified its scale and aggravated the situation in the global economy.
Accordingly, there is no reason to expect a quick recovery and rebound in the price of commodities, including oil. The supply of oil significantly exceeds the demand,
there is an overstocking of storage facilities.
The pandemic is not over yet, and the scale of its impact on the global economy is still very difficult to predict and assess.
The corona crisis has shown that in order to create new or additional value, people no longer need to physically move and use the energy derived from hydrocarbons for this,
and electricity and a strong Internet signal are enough.
The world is changing, and our habits are changing too. People start to save more and consume less. There are more and more supporters of the idea of lean or responsible consumption, which will positively affect the environment and will reduce the demand for oil.
And the longer the pandemic lasts, the stronger these trends will get, and the oil industry needs to be prepared for new challenges.
In the 2020 edition, we present an analysis of key global and Kazakhstan events in the energy sector over the past year, as well as forecasting tools. Also, the rating of Kazakhstan oil producing companies was calculated for the second year in a row.